Pakistan needs $565 billion for climate goals as COP31 nears

Pakistan will need an estimated $565 billion in climate-related investment by 2035 to meet its international commitments, according to State Minister for Climate Change Dr Shezra Mansab Ali Khan Kharal, who has warned that debt repayments and insufficient external financing are restricting the country's ability to act.

Speaking at a pre-COP31 consultation on October 21, Kharal called for a coordinated national negotiating position focused on climate finance, adaptation, loss and damage, and the growing risks facing Pakistan's mountainous regions.

The discussions come ahead of the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference, scheduled for November 9–20 in Antalya, Türkiye.

Pakistan's third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), submitted in September 2025, sets a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50% against projected levels by 2035.

Of that reduction, 17 percentage points are unconditional, while a further 33 percentage points depend on international financial assistance.

Kharal said more than 60% of government revenue was being used for debt servicing, leaving limited domestic resources available for climate programmes.

The minister urged participants at the Pre-COP31 Multi-stakeholder Consultation to provide evidence-based recommendations while the government's official negotiating position remained under preparation.

Climate finance and loss-and-damage funding gaps

Access to international funding is among Pakistan's principal concerns ahead of COP31, particularly as developing countries seek more resources to protect communities from rising climate risks.

Kharal questioned the practical implications of an international commitment to triple adaptation finance by 2035, arguing that uncertainty over the baseline used to calculate the increase could affect how much additional funding vulnerable countries receive.

She cited global adaptation finance of $26 billion in 2023, an earlier commitment to reach $40 billion by 2026, and estimated annual financing needs of $310 billion.

The minister also highlighted the gap between applications to the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage and the resources available during its initial funding phase.

According to figures she presented, the fund had received 176 eligible proposals from 119 countries seeking a combined $2.8 billion, compared with $342 million available for allocation.

Pakistan has submitted three proposals worth a total of $58 million. They cover agricultural recovery, climate-resilient healthcare in Balochistan and the restoration of fisheries affected by flooding in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Kharal said none of the Pakistani proposals had received funding allocations, with initial decisions expected in December.

She also raised concerns about arrangements reserving half of the fund's resources for least developed countries and small island developing states, leaving Pakistan and other eligible developing countries to seek support from the remaining funding.

The minister called for a carefully developed negotiating position on how the resources should be distributed.

Glacier risks add to Pakistan's climate priorities

Pakistan also wants greater international recognition of climate threats facing mountain communities, particularly those exposed to glacier loss and glacial lake outburst floods.

Citing projections in the country's NDC, Kharal said accelerated glacier melting could reduce water flows in the Indus River system by 20% to 30% by 2050.

Communities in Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral face particular risks, she said, but their circumstances are not adequately reflected in existing international climate classifications.

Glacial lake outburst floods create additional challenges because they are sudden disasters associated with longer-term environmental changes. Kharal argued that this distinction can complicate the classification of climate impacts and access to international assistance.

Referring to discussions on mountains and climate change held in Bonn in June, she called for stronger recognition of mountain-specific vulnerabilities in international climate agreements.

Youth representation and negotiating preparations

Youth participation was another priority raised at the consultation, with Kharal calling for practical arrangements to include young people in Pakistan's official COP31 delegation.

She said proposals should specify how many young representatives could participate, how they would be selected and what formal status they would hold during negotiations.

The minister argued that broad commitments to inclusion would be insufficient without clear mechanisms for participation.

She also acknowledged the absence of a formal process for incorporating recommendations from provincial institutions, universities, youth organisations and climate-affected communities into the country's negotiating position.

The consultation was intended to address part of that gap before the official brief was finalised.

Kharal said the recommendations would remain the collective work of participants and that government adoption could not be guaranteed. However, she assured attendees that the document would be reviewed and shared with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

She also emphasised the importance of precise language in international climate agreements, noting that commitments to provide finance can carry different implications from commitments to mobilise funding.

For Pakistan's negotiators, the immediate priority is to translate the country's financial requirements and climate vulnerabilities into specific proposals before talks begin in Antalya.

The government has yet to finalise its COP31 negotiating brief, leaving an opportunity for stakeholder recommendations to inform its position on adaptation, financial assistance and support for communities exposed to climate risks.